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List of Prediction Concepts
Additive linear models, Anchoring and adjustment, Betting beliefs, Counterfactual Decomposition, Judgmental bootstrapping, Key Assumptions, Narrow Framing, Perpetual Beta, Prediction horizon, Premortem 
Negative Capability
"being in uncertainties, Mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact& reason" John Keats Negative capability is the ability to hold off on proposing solutions until the space of possible solutions has been at 
Dangling Pointer
"When you reach the top of the mountain, keep climbing." Zen Proverb Literally, a dangling pointer is a pointer that points at an object that no longer exists. Figuratively, a dangling pointer is closely 
Key Assumptions
Key assumptions are generally tacit (which is to say, nonexplicit) assumptions that underlie a causal model and are essential to that causal model making good predictions. Research work by CIA analysts indicated that key assumptions 
Lost Purposes
Lost purposes is the idea that the incentives at a particular level of organization are distorted by the translation layers they must pass through. In the traditional view of a corporation, for instance, the CEO 
Wastebasket Taxon
A Wastebasket Taxon is a common hack in taxonomy generation whereby a category is created for all the things that don't fit into any other category. This creates the illusion that the taxonomy is 
List of Mathematical Concepts
Attractors, Derivatives, Function, Graph, Isomorphism, NPcomplete problems, Over/underdetermined, Sets, State machine 
List of Legal Concepts
Civil law, Common law, Distributive vs Procedural law, Jurisdiction, Mens Rea, Precedent, Rule of Law, Tort 
List of Group Rationality Concepts
Diminishing/negative returns to group size, Group energy, Group engagement, Group exploration, Group polarization, Judgement aggregation, Psychological safety 
List of Economics Concepts
80:20 rule, Ammortization, Arbitrage, Certainty effect, Comparative advantage, Cost benefit analysis, Critical thresholds in nonlinear systems, Efficient markets, Elasticity, Exchange rates, Externalities, Frictional costs, Human Capital, Hedging, Information asymmetry, Kakonomics, Marginal Thinking, Money, Moral 
Concept Operators
Concept operators are functions that take a concept and permute it in some way in the hopes that this will generate insight. Abstraction/Metaphor Shift, Addition/Subtraction, Decomposition/Synthesis, Goldilocks, Hybridize, Inversion, Key Assumption Check 
Aether Variable
An Aether Variable is a parameter in a model that all the uncertainty in the model gets shoved into to make the rest of the model appear neat and orderly. It is named after the 
Option Value
Option Value is the value assigned in a costbenefit analysis to keeping options open because we can't predict whether or not we would like to take them. A simple example of the tradeoff 
Problemheuristic Fit
Problemheuristic fit refers to how well a given problem solving strategy fits a particular problem. On the good side, this ranges from heuristics specifically designed for a problem domain to novel ways of applying 
Model Uncertainty
Model Uncertainty refers to the probability that we are fundamentally confused about the situation we are modeling, and an attempt to give such an error some weight in our model. In a traditional probabilistic calculation 
List of Engineering Concepts
Active vs passive stability, Breakpoint, Car analogies, Chaos Monkey, Fault reporting, Functionmeans tree, Margin of safety, Modularity, Safe on fail, Signal vs noise, Single point of failure, Swiss cheese theory, Upstream Constraints 
RAPID capital allocation framework
RAPID is a mnemonic device for remembering options for allocating capital as an organization. R  repurchase stock 
LATCH framework
LATCH is a mnemonic device for remembering common ontology types. Which is to say ways of organizing some information you have that will make it easy to navigate. The categories are 
System 1 Can't Do Math
System 1 can't do math is the notion that a variety of fallacies and biases are a result of System 1 being unable to understand simple quantitative models. Examples include the gambler's fallacy 
PowerLaw World
PowerLaw World is the notion that, in the ancestral environment, the possible outcomes were basically normally distributed in terms of available utility. Therefore, our intuitions are shaped for a world in which outcomes are 
List of Biology Concepts
Adaptation executor not fitness maximizer, Ancestral Environment, Cell Wall, Dunbar's number, Evolutionarily Stable Strategy, Fitness landscape, Handicap principle, Hormesis (antifragility), Liking vs Wanting, r/K selection, Red Queen, Superstimuli, Symbiotic vs Parasytic 
List of General Semantics Concepts
This is a list of semantic errors that lead to miscommunication and/or indicate confusions about map/territory distinctions. Cause and effect assumptions, Comparative deletions, Dualisms, False equivalence, Lost performative, Mind reading fallacy, Modal operators 
List of Statistics Concepts
Berkson's Paradox (satisficer observation selection effect), Common distributions (bimodal, normal, lognormal, power law, etc.), Conditional probability, Confidence Interval, Confounding, Confusion matrix, Dimensionality reduction/Clusters in thing space, Effect size, Exploratory factor analysis, Forest 
List of Programming Concepts
BigO notation, Compression, Dynamic programming, GIGO, Hill Climbing, Inner loop/outer loop, Interfaces, Lazy evaluation, Parallelization, Type error 
List of Politics Concepts
Arrow's impossibility, Bread and circuses, Chilling effect, Filter bubble, Median voter theorem, Overton window, Public choice theory, Realpolitik, Regulatory capture, Sacred cow, Wedge issue
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